By golly, it appears I do. Does this make me the biggest homer in basketball history? Quite possibly, but normally, I'm realistic about Mizzou's chances in the tournament. Of course, Mizzou hasn't made an NCAA appearance since 2003, so maybe I'm irrationally exuberant. Only one way to find out...First-Round Upsets
Texas A&M over BYU, Utah State over Marquette, Maryland over Cal, Portland State over Xavier, Western Kentucky over Illinois, and Temple over Arizona State.
I didn't pick anything terribly shocking in the first other than Portland State. ESPN Insider's Peter Keating created an interesting statistical model analyzing which high seeds are vulnerable to a big upset and which low seeds could pull it off. Xavier, because it relies heavily on free throws and has a poor turnovers-versus-turnovers-forced ratio, is "as good an upset pick as you'll find in the first round." Good enough for me.
Keating also thinks Kansas is vulnerable against North Dakota State, making it his "best bet" in the Midwest. As much as I'd love to see that happen, I can't go that far.
Also, since everyone and Dickie V's mother is taking Arizona over Utah and VCU over UCLA, I'm going against the grain. I think people are getting a little too excited about VCU in particular; the Duke upset from two years ago is still fresh in everyone's mind. But let's not go nuts. VCU's Eric Maynor will play in the NBA, but so will at least two guys in UCLA's starting five. Also, Keating's model says UCLA has a 0% chance of being upset. Since he started it in 2004, no 0% team has lost in the first round.
Sweet Sixteen
Louisville, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Florida State, UCLA, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Temple, and Oklahoma.
West Virginia impressed in the Big East tournament, and Kansas looked terrible in its last two games after killing Missouri at home.
I doubt many have Temple over Syracuse, but I needed to take a chance. I love Syracuse's Jonny Flynn, and Eric Devendorf ain't too shabby either, despite being the most hated college player since J.J. Redick. However, Syracuse was only 1-5 against the Big East's top five, and it looks ripe for an upset according to Keating's system. Syracuse relies heavily on free throws, and it turns the ball over a lot without forcing many in its 2-3 zone. Plus, Temple is playing its best ball now.
Elite Eight
Louisville, Michigan State, Purdue, Mizzou, Pitt, Duke, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma.
Purdue takes down UConn. Ever since DeJuan Blair used an arm-bar takedown on Hasheem Thabeet, I've been questioning UConn's toughness. Purdue has a healthy Robbie Hummel and plays excellent defense. Purdue center JaJuan Johnson is big enough and athletic enough to neutralize Thabeet. He can also draw Thabeet away from the bucket if he's hitting from the outside.
A potential Mizzou-Memphis game could be an epic track meet. Memphis has a little more talent, but the teams are eerily similar. Both play up-tempo on both ends of the floor, and their forwards can play on the perimeter. Thus, Memphis doesn't have the size to exploit Mizzou's lack of size, and vice versa. Missouri appears to have more depth, and Mike Anderson proved at UAB that he can beat John Calipari. So, I'll give my Tigers the benefit of the doubt.
North Carolina flames out against Gonzaga. There's almost no chance Ty Lawson will be the same player in the tournament. Turf toe is not something that heals quickly, and if it's debilitating to running backs, it has to be equally bad for someone who relies on his quickness as much as Lawson. The talent gap between UNC and Gonzaga isn't as big as you might think.
Final Four
Louisville, Missouri, Pitt, and Oklahoma.
Yep, all Big East and Big 12. Honestly, I thought the ACC was better than the Big 12 overall this year, and I was tempted to take Duke over Pitt. However, I think Pitt can overpower Duke.
Missouri beats Purdue in a rematch of last season's 73-63 Missouri win in Columbia. I'm sure Purdue has improved since last season, but Missouri is drastically better than last season. Plus, Mizzou Arena wasn't the home-court advantage it became at the end of this season, with just 7,600 in the stands last year. I had no intentions of putting Mizzou in its first Final Four, but if it's going to play Purdue in the Elite Eight, let's roll the dice.
I think Blake Griffin is clearly the best player in the country, and I always have the best player's team going far. (That strategy screwed me two years ago when I had Kevin Durant's Longhorns going all the way, only to lose in the second round.)
Championship
I hate to agree with conventional wisdom, but the Big East has been by far the best conference. So, I'll take Pitt over Louisville to win the title. Pitt, along with having ample talent, is the kind of team that intimidates you as soon as it steps on the floor. If Blair possibly getting in foul trouble is the best reason to pick against Pitt, I feel pretty good. Any team is in trouble when its best player is on the bench.
Louisville ends Missouri's remarkable season. Since Louisville is capable of playing just about any style, I think it will handle Mizzou's pressure well. Despite the loss, Mike Anderson signs a massive contract extension, giving the metaphorical middle finger to the SEC after multiple teams had a chance to pursue him at UAB. Missouri wisely gave Anderson an opportunity, and I think it's a no-brainer that he'll stay if Mizzou shows him the money. There’s no reason to start another rebuilding project, unless he desperately wants to live in Alabama again.
