On second thought, The Oscars are probably a bigger deal to my mom than the Super Bowl is to me. I tried to avoid the Super Bowl pregame shows at all costs, but Mom will be locked into the Barbara Walters Special and the red-carpet show like Troy Polamalu on a receiver coming over the middle.
So, since she has seen more Oscar flicks than me, I'll temporarily get off the stage:
Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. SLUMDOG offered the most unique and uplifting film experience of the year for me. It's a modern-day fairy tale with plenty of edge and excitement, and a good payoff that's a big relief of the non-stop tension built throughout the film. However, I enjoyed GRAN TORINO almost as much, but it wasn't nominated.
Best Actor: MICKEY ROURKE. This is a very tough pick. I'm thoroughly impressed by Frank Langella's FROST/NIXON, but equally moved by Sean Penn in MILK. However, the more I think about what Rourke put into playing the Ram, I think I've gotta give him the nod, and this isn't based on any of the "comeback" hype he's been getting. He's simply amazing in this role. At the same time, Langella and Penn did wonderful work in once-in-a-lifetime roles and are equally deserving, but didn't face the incredible demands that Rourke conquered in becoming a totally convincing pro wrestler. [NOTE: Clint Eastwood deserved a nomination for GRAN TORINO, another wonderful and touching performance.]
Best Actress: KATE WINSLET. Full disclosure -- the only other performance I saw was Anne Hathaway in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, and she was quite good. Although Winslet is a good bet, I am not qualified to make a good comparison of these actresses. Streep & Jolie are always good, and I've seen plenty of good work by Melissa Leo.
Best Supporting Actor: ROBERT DOWNEY JR. Of course, Heath Ledger will win and everyone will be happy, but Downey's work in TROPIC THUNDER was much more demanding. He perfected three very different characters, while Ledger gave us one very scary villain. Oscar's very sentimental, so Downey's got no chance.
Best Suppporting Actress: PENELOPE CRUZ. I confess I haven't even seen her performance, but have read a lot about it and am convinced she's deserving. Marisa Tomei was good, but not great in THE WRESTLER, and I'm not a fan of nominations for women based on "brave" (read "degrading") work. Yes, she shows guts and almost every bit of her body, but that's not enough and some of the camerawork seems gratuitous.
Best Director: DANNY BOYLE. For me, SLUMDOG was fresh, exciting, and riveting. On the other hand, I was close to nodding off during THE READER. Ron Howard did great work with FROST/NIXON, but the other directors pale in comparison to SLUMDOG.
Best Song: I really liked Bruce Springsteen's song at the end of THE WRESTLER, but it wasn't nominated. Therefore, I'm going to go with the song at the end of SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (two song were nominated from this film, but I don't know which is which).
My one disagreement: Best Picture. I liked Slumdog but not as much as The Wrestler or Gran Torino, neither of which was nominated. However, I'll go with Slumdog if forced to pick from the nominees. Slumdog seems like a sure-thing, but watch out for Benjamin Button; The Academy loves innovative movies that span a character's lifetime. Brad Pitt's nomination already shows Oscar likes the movie more than the general public considering many felt it was too long, and more importantly, Button wasn't engaging enough to carry the film.
Finally, one more thing about Downey: We've seen actresses like Tomei and Halle Berry called "brave" for essentially getting naked on film. Wasn't Downey brave for playing a black guy? In our politically correct world, if there wasn't at least a moment when he thought, "Ya know, essentially running around a Ben Stiller comedy in black face might end badly for me," then he's a much braver man than me. However, to the audience's credit, I haven't heard anyone take offense to Downey's brilliantly hilarious performance.
